Markets have been trying to recover after the USDA report showed a very bearish bean ending stock number and corn yield number. Since the report the markets have rebounded as of this writing with Dec 18 corn trading around $3.80 and Nov 18 beans trading around $9.00. This has been an encouraging recovery with some potentially favorably market-moving news being talked about with our trade relations. There has been some talk of a potential NAFTA deal getting finalized this week with Mexico and a schedule of meetings to try and work out the current trade war with China. Both of these could give markets a boost if they come to fruition.
Beyond the trade war, this is the time of year where we see the local crop tours get started and start forecasting their yield guesses. It will be interesting to see what kind of numbers they come up with as last year some of the most watched tours undershot the final yield by quite a bit. Last years long kernel fill and deep kernels surprised many farmers with the yields they saw in their fields. We haven't been as cool or had as much moisture this year during kernel fill, so maybe the crop tours will be more accurate.
I believe markets will be caught in the current range we are in until further trade deals are completed or until yield results start coming in that are either bigger or not as big as expected. With tighter ending stocks forecasted for corn, there is some optimism that if the yield isn't as high as the USDA printed there could be some better pricing opportunities in the future. If you have any marketing questions, please reach out to one of our marketers as we would be happy to help you with any of your marketing needs.
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